Monday, January 31 at 9:00 am

Good Morning Fellow Investors and Traders!

Here’s your morning briefing for Monday, January 31 at 9:00 am

“Interest has been so low for so long a time that to many people a rising rate produces a sort of alarm, and it is natural to expect a considerable lapse of time before this will disappear under the new conditions.” ~ Charles H. Dow (July 24, 1899)

How to Interpret This Briefing

📈 The Markets Overnight
Asia: Mixed but most Asian markets closed all week for Lunar New Year holidays
Europe: Up a bit
US Index Futures: 
Down
Crude Oil: 
Up
Yields: Up
Crypto: Down

🌏 Major Global Catalysts
UN Security Council meets to discuss Russian/Ukraine

💵 Economic Reports and Events Consensus forecast shown
Today:
9:45 am Chicago PMI 61.7 Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area.
Tuesday:
ISM Manufacturing PMI
JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday:
OPEC-JMMC Meetings
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thursday:
ISM Services PMI
Friday:
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate

📰 Selected Earnings Releases Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
None
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
XOM Exxon Mobil EPS 1.840 Rev 90.17B
UPS United Parcel Service EPS 3.090 Rev 27.06B

🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes

💬 Commentary

Well, that was rough last week. After Monday’s very strong reversal day failed to follow through, markets just chopped around violently all week long but finished strong on Friday. Not strong enough to break out the top of the ominous bear flag (see chart below) the S&P500 has drawn right under the 200-day moving average.
It’s tough to call a direction in a choppy market like this. Does the bear flag resolve to the downside target in the area of SPY 385 as the pattern probabilities suggest? Or do we get a failure of the flag with a strong break to the upside? From failed moves come fast moves! Or maybe it’s just more chop? There’s a strong case for all three of these possibilities.
It’s a huge week for earnings and a big week for macro-econ data so one thing is sure…It’s going to be a volatile week.